Speaking at the White House on Wednesday, Trump said the United States “will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon,” adding that Washington had “strong support” for its position. He announced what he described as a strengthened naval blockade, referred to as the “Steel Wall.”

Trump said the United States would “seize more Iranian oil tankers,” adding that “no one can break through the naval blockade” imposed on Iran and that additional Iranian vessels “will be intercepted unless Tehran shows real commitment and changes its behaviour.”

Addressing lawmakers at the White House, Trump also said the United States would “end the war very quickly” with Iran, reiterating that Tehran would not be permitted to possess nuclear weapons.

Iran’s foreign ministry, however, said Tehran was currently focused on “ending the war on all fronts, especially Lebanon,” while insisting it continued negotiations “in good faith.” The ministry said Washington must demonstrate seriousness in any diplomatic process.

The ministry described the US naval measures as “a violation of the ceasefire and contrary to international law,” dismissing discussions of ultimatums or deadlines imposed on Iran as “ridiculous.”

It added that coastal states have the right to prevent “aggressor states” from crossing the Strait of Hormuz and called for mechanisms regulating passage through the strategic waterway to ensure maritime security and environmental protection. Tehran also demanded the release of frozen Iranian assets and an end to what it described as “maritime piracy against Iranian shipping.”

In a further escalation, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that any renewed attack on Iran would not remain confined within its borders. In a statement carried by Tasnim news agency, the Guards said the “American-Zionist enemy” had failed to learn from repeated strategic defeats, adding that Iran had “not yet used all of its capabilities” despite confronting the United States and Israel.

Iranian state television later reported that five large oil tankers had received authorisation from the Revolutionary Guards to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting continued tensions surrounding one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes.

Elsewhere in the region, Jordan’s military said it had shot down an unidentified drone that entered the country’s airspace over Jerash province on Wednesday morning, adding that there were no casualties and only minor material damage.

In the Gulf, the United Arab Emirates called on Iraq to prevent “any hostile acts” launched from its territory following a recent drone attack targeting the UAE’s Barakah nuclear power plant. In a statement, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged Baghdad to take immediate and unconditional action to prevent “all hostile acts originating from its territory” and address the threats responsibly in accordance with international law.

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Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump said he had been “one hour away” from authorising military action against Iran before deciding to suspend it, adding that strikes “would be happening right now” had there not been what he described as positive developments in contacts with Tehran.

“I’ll give it two or three days, maybe Friday or Saturday or Sunday, or maybe next week, but it is a limited period of time, because we cannot allow them to have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said. He added there was a “very good chance” of reaching an agreement with Iran, but warned: “I hope we don’t have to do more military work, but we may have to deliver another strong strike.”

Trump’s comments followed weeks of confrontation involving reciprocal attacks between the United States, Israel and Iran, including strikes targeting military sites, infrastructure, and energy facilities, with spillover effects across Gulf states and key maritime routes.

In Tehran, Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi said Iran was prepared to confront any military aggression and would “not surrender”. He accused Washington of presenting military pressure as an opportunity for peace, stating: “For us, there is no concept of surrender. We either win or are martyred.”

Iranian army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said Iran “cannot be besieged or defeated” and warned of opening new fronts using “surprising tools” if the country came under attack again.

Meanwhile, General Ali Abdollahi, head of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya wartime operations headquarters, warned the United States and Israel against any new “miscalculation”, saying Iranian forces were “more prepared and powerful than ever” and would respond “quickly, decisively, forcefully and broadly” to further aggression.

Alongside escalating rhetoric, diplomatic efforts continued. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi discussed initiatives to end the conflict with Mohsin Naqvi in Tehran, arguing that “contradictory US positions and excessive demands” were obstructing diplomacy.

Araqchi thanked Pakistan for its mediation efforts, while Naqvi expressed hope that Islamabad’s engagement would help restore regional stability.

In Qatar, a foreign ministry spokesperson said Doha fully supported Pakistan’s mediation between Washington and Tehran, stressing that priorities remained preventing renewed hostilities, restoring stability, and achieving a sustainable resolution rather than a temporary ceasefire.

The spokesperson also emphasised the importance of preserving freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, saying obstruction of the waterway would violate international law.

He noted that the recent transit of two Qatari gas tankers through the strait did not indicate a return to normal shipping conditions, adding that regional and international contacts remained focused on reopening maritime routes and stabilising trade flows.

In the United Arab Emirates, the defence ministry said air defence systems had intercepted six drones targeting civilian and strategic locations over the past 48 hours.

The ministry added that investigations into Sunday’s attack on the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant found it involved three drones launched from Iraqi territory. Two were intercepted, while the third struck an electricity generator outside the facility’s inner perimeter.

The UAE said it reserved the right to take all necessary measures to protect its sovereignty and national security, stressing that its armed forces remained prepared to confront any threats.

In Israel, the newspaper Israel Hayom reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held another security cabinet meeting to discuss the possibility of renewed military action against Iran; the second such meeting within 24 hours.

The developments underscored the simultaneous escalation of military threats and diplomatic engagement surrounding the crisis. Trump said a breakthrough could come soon either through an agreement or renewed military action, reiterating that Iran would “never” obtain a nuclear weapon, while also acknowledging uncertainty over whether the United States would ultimately strike again.

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Speaking on state television, Pezeshkian said Iran’s “dignity and honour will not be sacrificed for comfort or worldly interests,” adding: “We will stand firm until the last breath with dignity and honour, while continuing negotiations and resolutely defending the rights of our dear people.”

His remarks came as the naval forces of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the establishment of a new body, the “Persian Gulf Strait Authority”, tasked with overseeing maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and levying transit charges on passing vessels, a move likely to intensify global concerns over shipping security and energy supplies moving through one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints.

Despite the escalation, signs emerged that diplomatic efforts remain active. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that Tehran had submitted an updated 14-point proposal to the United States through Pakistani mediation after amending an earlier US proposal containing the same number of points. According to Tasnim, the revised Iranian proposal focuses on ending the conflict and establishing confidence-building measures from Washington’s side.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said negotiations with the United States were continuing through the Pakistani channel, dismissing speculation surrounding uranium enrichment and nuclear materials. He said both sides had exchanged proposals and comments without providing further details.

In Washington, US President Donald Trump sharpened his rhetoric towards Tehran, warning that “the clock is ticking” for Iran and saying it must move “very fast or there will be nothing left of them.” He also wrote on his Truth Social platform that time was running out for Iran to reach an agreement.

CNN, citing a source familiar with the matter, reported that Trump’s patience was wearing thin over Iran’s handling of negotiations and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted global oil markets. The report added that Trump had more seriously considered resuming military operations in recent days as a means of increasing pressure on Tehran, although he still preferred a diplomatic resolution.

Meanwhile, Trump held a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding developments linked to Iran, while Saudi Arabia said it reserved the right to respond after intercepting three drones that entered its airspace from Iraq.

A spokesperson for Saudi Arabia’s defence ministry said the drones had been intercepted and destroyed, adding that the kingdom would “take all necessary operational measures” to address any threat to its security and sovereignty.

Qatar also condemned the drone incident, describing it as “a violation of Saudi sovereignty and a threat to regional security,” while reaffirming its full solidarity with Riyadh.

Underscoring growing regional concern, Pakistan deployed 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets and an air defence system to Saudi Arabia under a bilateral defence agreement, according to security officials and government sources, as Islamabad continues to serve as a principal mediator between Washington and Tehran.

On the diplomatic front, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty held a phone call with Massad Boulos, senior adviser to the US president for Arab and African affairs, to discuss efforts to reduce regional tensions. Abdelatty stressed the importance of resuming dialogue between the United States and Iran to reach understandings that could help avert a broader regional conflict.

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Trump posted on his Truth Social platform late on Saturday an image of warships, including a boat carrying the Iranian flag, alongside the phrase “The calm before the storm,” in what observers viewed as a possible signal of looming military action against Iran, particularly around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

The post came shortly after Trump returned from China, where he discussed the Iran war and other global issues with Chinese President Xi Jinping, amid growing international pressure on Washington to avoid a broader regional conflict.

Tehran responded sharply. Iranian armed forces spokesperson Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi warned that any new attack on Iran would result in the United States receiving “even harsher and more severe blows,” adding that American interests and forces would face “new and devastating attack scenarios” if Washington acted on its threats.

Iran’s defense ministry spokesperson Reza Talaei Nik also said Iranian armed forces were “fully prepared to respond to any threat or aggression,” as Tehran intensified both military and political messaging regarding Gulf shipping security.

Iranian state television announced new procedures for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, requiring ship owners to submit transit requests through their foreign ministries to Iran’s foreign ministry, which would then forward them to the Revolutionary Guards navy for evaluation of the vessel’s route, ownership and cargo. Transit permission would be granted only if the vessel was not linked to a “hostile state.”

The move points to unprecedented Iranian tightening of shipping controls in the strait, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil trade passes, raising renewed concerns over maritime security and energy supplies.

In a separate development, the UAE defense ministry said its air defenses dealt with three drones entering the country’s airspace from the western border area. Two drones were intercepted, while the third struck a power generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah nuclear power plant in the Al Dhafra region, though no casualties were reported.

The ministry said investigations were underway to determine the source of the attack and stressed that the armed forces remained on full alert to confront threats targeting the country’s security.

South Korea’s foreign ministry said Foreign Minister Cho Hyun sought clarification from his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi over an attack on a South Korean cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz. A South Korean official was quoted as saying the likelihood that another party besides Iran was responsible was “low.”

In Israel, Yedioth Ahronoth reported that the Israeli military had moved to maximum alert over the possibility of renewed war with Iran, adding that the government was awaiting Trump’s decision amid growing assessments that Tehran may reject U.S. conditions for ending the conflict and addressing Iran’s nuclear program.

The newspaper also said the United States and Israel were “strongly preparing” for the possible resumption of hostilities, echoing an earlier New York Times report that the Pentagon was preparing for renewed war because key U.S. objectives — especially concerning Iran’s nuclear program — had not been achieved.

At the same time, Tehran sought to project domestic unity and regional backing. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Pakistan’s interior minister that the United States and Israel had aimed to “topple the regime” but had failed to anticipate that the Iranian people would stand by their country and government. He also praised Pakistan’s role in helping sustain the ceasefire and expressed hope that Islamabad’s efforts would support regional peace.

As mutual threats continue, shipping restrictions tighten and military readiness increases across the region, fears are growing that the current ceasefire may prove only a temporary pause in a conflict whose core disputes remain unresolved.

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Iran’s Fars News Agency, citing an informed source, reported that Tehran had rejected a 14-point US proposal, describing it as an attempt to “impose surrender” while continuing a policy of coercion and threats.

According to the report, Iran would not participate in a second round of negotiations unless Washington fulfilled five key confidence-building conditions, although the details of those demands were not disclosed.

In further signs of Tehran’s increasingly hardline stance, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said “the enemies’ dreams of our people’s surrender and submission will never come true.”

Meanwhile, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of parliament’s national security committee, said Iran would “never give up the strategic gain of the Strait of Hormuz” and would not engage in any discussions on halting uranium enrichment.

Boroujerdi described the current ceasefire as “fragile and unreliable,” warning that clashes could resume at any moment and stressing that Tehran would not yield to US demands.

As fears of a collapse in the truce intensified, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the world was consuming oil reserves at a record pace due to the war’s impact, forecasting a decline of around 3.9 million barrels per day in global oil supplies during 2026 because of disruptions linked to Iran.

In its monthly report, the agency said the region had already lost more than one billion barrels of oil supplies since the conflict began. It warned that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could remove up to 12.8 million barrels per day from global markets, potentially triggering one of the largest energy shocks in decades.

Against this backdrop, several countries announced plans to contribute to maritime security arrangements in the Gulf.

Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles said Canberra would join a “purely defensive” mission led by Britain and France to secure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, deploying a Boeing E-7 Wedgetail surveillance aircraft.

South Korea also said it was considering “gradual” support measures that could include intelligence sharing, personnel and military resources, while stressing that such involvement would not amount to direct military participation.

Italy, meanwhile, said it could deploy two warships near the Gulf, but only after a “real, credible and stable” ceasefire had been established.

India announced the launch of a $1.5bn maritime insurance guarantee fund aimed at shielding its shipping sector from war- and sanctions-related risks, underscoring growing global concern over trade security and shipping routes.

Diplomatically, Pakistan continued to play a central mediating role between Washington and Tehran, with growing backing from China.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi praised Islamabad’s efforts to facilitate US-Iran talks and expressed hope for a “proper solution” to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

In the Gulf, tensions escalated further after the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait condemned what they described as an infiltration attempt by members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Kuwait’s Bubiyan Island, which reportedly wounded a Kuwaiti serviceman.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that David Barnea, head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, visited the UAE at least twice during the war to coordinate matters related to the campaign against Iran.

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Trump said on Truth Social that he had reviewed Iran’s response, delivered via Pakistani mediators, and found it “totally unacceptable.” He later told Fox News he had not yet decided whether to resume “Project Freedom,” the US-led naval operation designed to secure maritime traffic, but suggested it could be expanded beyond Hormuz.

He said Washington was considering reviving the operation “on a broader scale, not limited to escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz,” while warning that the United States would continue dealing firmly with Iran’s hardline leadership until an agreement was reached.

US Central Command reported redirecting 62 commercial vessels and disabling four ships since the blockade began, underscoring continued American pressure. Bloomberg cited sources saying Iran’s demands included lifting the blockade, easing sanctions, releasing frozen assets, and removing restrictions on oil exports. Tehran also sought control over Hormuz shipping and called for a ceasefire in Lebanon.

Iranian state television and the conservative Tasnim news agency said Tehran’s response emphasized the “fundamental rights of the Iranian people” and rejected what it described as “Trump’s excessive demands.” Reports added that Iran also sought compensation for the war and guarantees against renewed attacks.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Tehran’s proposal was “not excessive,” arguing that Washington continued to present “unreasonable demands.” He added that any understanding must include an end to fighting on all fronts, the lifting of sanctions and arrangements to ensure security in the Strait of Hormuz.

Responding to Trump’s rejection, Tasnim quoted a source as saying the US president’s position “carries no importance,” adding that Iran’s negotiating team drafts proposals “to defend the rights of the Iranian people, not to satisfy Trump.”

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the country had “multiple options,” ranging from entering negotiations “with dignity” to remaining in a state of “no war, no peace,” reflecting Tehran’s continued caution toward the diplomatic track.

Meanwhile, regional powers stepped up mediation efforts. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan stressed the importance of diplomacy following a phone call between Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, during which they discussed Islamabad’s mediation efforts between Washington and Tehran.

Pakistan’s foreign ministry said the Saudi minister expressed support for Islamabad’s role, while both sides emphasized the importance of safeguarding maritime security, including shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi also held another phone call with his Saudi counterpart – the second in less than 24 hours – to discuss regional developments and Pakistani-mediated negotiations.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is expected to visit Doha on Tuesday for talks on the Iran conflict, Gulf security and maritime safety in Hormuz, according to a Turkish diplomatic source.

The source said Ankara was maintaining intensive contacts with the United States, Iran and Pakistan in an effort to contain escalation, while supporting Qatar and simultaneously criticizing Iranian strikes on Gulf states.

Highlighting mounting international concern, Fatih Birol warned that the Strait of Hormuz’s reputation as a reliable global energy corridor could be “permanently damaged” if disruptions continue, adding that once confidence is lost “it cannot easily be restored.”

The Arab League condemned attacks targeting Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, calling them a “flagrant violation” of international law and warning that further escalation could undermine mediation efforts and push the region toward deeper instability.

With both sides firmly holding to core demands, diplomacy faces an increasingly difficult test as issues of war, sanctions, maritime security and energy flows become more tightly intertwined, complicating efforts to move beyond a fragile ceasefire toward a broader agreement.

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The assertion of the ongoing blockade follows Friday’s maritime clashes, where US forces fired on two Iranian-flagged oil tankers to stop them from docking in violation of the blockade. Despite the friction, President Donald Trump stated the US-Iran ceasefire is “still in effect,” but cautioned Washington would “knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently” if Tehran rejects a pending 14-point peace agreement.

Washington is currently awaiting Iran’s formal response to the proposed memorandum of understanding, which aims to end hostilities, ease blockades, and halt Iranian uranium enrichment. Asked if Tehran was stalling its reply, Trump responded: “I don’t know. We’ll find out soon enough.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed the US is expecting a response, adding, “we’ll see what the response entails” and hoping it is “a serious offer.” He attributed Friday’s delay to a “highly divided” and dysfunctional Iranian government.

The Wall Street Journal reported the one-page draft establishes a 30-day negotiation period, with talks potentially resuming next week in Islamabad, Pakistan. It requires Iran to ease its Strait of Hormuz closure whilst the US gradually lifts its port blockade. If talks fail, US forces will reinstate blockades or resume military action.

Iran has indicated an openness to discussing its nuclear programme and transferring highly enriched uranium abroad. Axios reported the proposed enrichment halt spans 12 to 15 years, bridging Iran’s five-year proposal and the US demand for 20 years. Any Iranian breach would extend the halt, after which enrichment is capped at 3.67 per cent. The pact also bars underground nuclear facilities and requires Iran to pledge never to develop nuclear weapons.

Conversely, Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, vowed Friday not to relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz. In a Mehr news agency video, he likened the strategic waterway to an “atomic bomb” and pledged to change its legal regime. Rubio warned that any Iranian effort to control shipping there remains “unacceptable” to the US

Alongside the military developments, Associated Press satellite imagery revealed a 27-square-mile oil slick emanating from Iran’s Kharg Island export terminal. Windward AI CEO Ami Daniel estimated 80,000 barrels have spilled since Tuesday, warning it could reach the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, or Saudi Arabia within two weeks as cleanup is unlikely in a war zone. However, Greenpeace Germany expert Nina Noelle noted the slick is dispersing and will likely dissipate offshore. The Pentagon declined to comment on the spill, which predates the most recent US strikes.

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US President Donald Trump adopted a hardened tone, stating that Iran “has no real naval or air power” and describing the situation as a “small military engagement,” despite ongoing discussions about potential negotiations.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kane announced the launch of “Project Freedom” to secure maritime transit through the strait, accusing Iran of threatening global shipping and weaponising supply chains. He said Iranian forces had targeted commercial vessels nine times and attacked US forces ten times since a ceasefire was declared.

Kane added that US forces remain prepared to resume combat operations if ordered, calling on countries with strategic interests in the strait to contribute to safeguarding navigation, as Washington continues its maritime blockade on Iran.

Iranian officials, however, insisted the crisis cannot be resolved through military means. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said recent developments demonstrate that “there is no military solution,” noting that talks are progressing through Pakistani mediation. Meanwhile, Iran’s ground forces commander warned of “severe consequences” in the event of any miscalculation.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf described the current situation in the strait as “unsustainable for the United States,” accusing Washington and its allies of undermining maritime security through the blockade.

On the ground, US media reported that two American destroyers successfully transited the strait despite Iranian attacks involving boats, missiles and drones, without sustaining damage. Iranian media, by contrast, claimed US vessels had become stranded in southern waters, highlighting conflicting narratives and the difficulty of independently verifying developments.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards navy also reported seizing vessels in the area, while shipping data indicated a growing backlog of tankers awaiting clearance—underscoring disruptions in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.

Elsewhere, the United Arab Emirates said its air defences intercepted Iranian missiles and drones, while France and United Kingdom condemned the attacks and called for restraint and renewed diplomatic engagement.

Regionally, Egypt has intensified diplomatic contacts with Gulf states and the United States in support of de-escalation efforts. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi expressed solidarity with the UAE during a call with President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, while Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty stressed the need to sustain negotiations and warned of serious risks to regional and global stability.

Saudi Arabia also voiced concern over the escalation, calling for restraint and supporting Pakistani mediation, while emphasising the importance of ensuring safe maritime navigation through the strait.

At the international level, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres welcomed the extension of the ceasefire, describing it as an opportunity to reduce tensions, as countries including South Korea consider joining international efforts to secure vital shipping routes.

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In the US, three main forces are pulling in different directions. First, Congress, both chambers, wants to avoid another endless war in the Middle East, especially since the public is weary of long, costly interventions. Second, the military establishment knows that any direct clash with Iran would not be quick or clean; it would likely open multiple fronts from the Gulf to Iraq and possibly beyond. Third, there is the electoral angle, in which every military choice is tied to the president’s image with voters, who are increasingly sensitive to fuel prices and economic security.

What we are seeing now is not truly a “withdrawal” but more a game of brinkmanship. The US administration is trying to maintain deterrence without slipping into war. The ongoing naval presence in the Strait of Hormuz and the constant threat of military action are balanced by the opening of a limited negotiating channel, a careful mix of pressure without escalation.

On the flip side, Iran is keenly reading the US stance. It knows Washington is not seeking a full-blown war, but it also cannot afford to appear as though it is backing down. Tehran is advancing calculated negotiating proposals while holding its regional influence. It is banking on time: the longer tension lingers without actual conflict, the more domestic pressure will build on the US administration.

Insights from Washington think tanks, such as the Brookings Institution and the Council on Foreign Relations, highlight a complex concern. Their analyses do not describe an “end of conflict,” but rather a “repositioning phase.” The general view is that both sides have entered a sort of tactical truce, which seems more about buying time than building peace.

On the economic front, the situation is trickier than it appears. Any disruption to oil flows through the Gulf would hit the US market hard. With inflation still a serious issue at home, the administration cannot afford a military operation that might send prices soaring. Energy stability thus becomes a key, albeit hidden, factor in every decision made.

Forecasts center around three main scenarios. First, the maintenance of the current situation, neither war nor agreement, which seems most likely in the short term, as it meets the minimum interests of both sides. Second, the possibility of a limited diplomatic breakthrough, perhaps through indirect mediation, leading to a longer period of calm but without a real solution. Third, and most dangerous, is a miscalculation, an ill-timed strike or incident in the Gulf, that could quickly reignite the conflict, given the already charged atmosphere. The irony is that all parties claim they do not want war, yet their actions keep the possibility alive.

This is not so much a contradiction as a reflection of today’s international politics: managing risks rather than eliminating them. In the end, what is unfolding is neither the end of escalation nor a clear beginning, but rather a state of limbo managed with extreme precision from Washington, where every phrase is as carefully calculated as military actions.

The real question now is not whether the war has ended, but: How long can the United States maintain this tenuous balance before it is disrupted, either by choice or by chance?

Dr. Marwa El-Shinawy – Academic and Writer

The post Opinion | The Illusion of an End: Washington’s Strategy of Managing War without Fighting first appeared on Dailynewsegypt.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared that Iran does not control the strait, asserting that the United States has “full control” over the passage. He urged international partners to increase pressure on Tehran, framing the dispute as a test of international resolve. US Central Command reinforced this position, reporting that two US-flagged commercial vessels transited the strait safely and denying Iranian claims of attacks or blockades. In a move underscoring Washington’s determination, Central Command announced the deployment of around 15,000 troops, more than 100 aircraft, and guided-missile destroyers as part of an operation to restore freedom of navigation in the strait, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade passes.

Iranian military officials countered with equal force, insisting that security in Hormuz is “fully under the control” of its armed forces. The commander of Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiya central headquarters warned that any threat would be met with a “harsh response,” while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) cautioned shipping companies against ignoring directives, vowing to intercept vessels that fail to comply with its protocols.

The escalation comes amid conflicting accounts of maritime incidents in the strait. Iran’s military claimed its naval forces issued warnings to US destroyers approaching the strait and fired warning shots using missiles and drones after the vessels ignored alerts, holding Washington responsible for any consequences. The US military flatly denied that its ships had been targeted, highlighting the conflicting narratives that have become a hallmark of the crisis.

The fallout has reverberated across the Gulf. The United Arab Emirates initially warned citizens of a “potential missile threat” before later declaring conditions safe. Qatar and Egypt condemned an attack on a UAE tanker, describing it as a violation of international law and freedom of navigation, and warning of its impact on global energy security. Egypt’s foreign ministry emphasized that targeting commercial vessels represents a “serious threat to regional stability and global energy supplies,” while Qatar rejected the use of the strait as a pressure tool and called for it to be reopened unconditionally. Meanwhile, maritime security reports indicated that container ships had come under fire, and Iran’s IRGC claimed to have seized three vessels, underscoring the risks despite efforts to sustain a ceasefire.

Diplomatic efforts are underway to prevent further escalation. Pakistan’s foreign minister discussed developments with his Iranian counterpart, stressing the need for de-escalation. Russia signaled readiness to propose new initiatives for a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction, linking the Hormuz crisis to broader regional security concerns. As global concern mounts, the dispute over Hormuz has become more than a bilateral clash; it is a test of international diplomacy, energy security, and the fragile balance of power in the Gulf.

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