Speaking at the White House on Wednesday, Trump said the United States “will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon,” adding that Washington had “strong support” for its position. He announced what he described as a strengthened naval blockade, referred to as the “Steel Wall.”

Trump said the United States would “seize more Iranian oil tankers,” adding that “no one can break through the naval blockade” imposed on Iran and that additional Iranian vessels “will be intercepted unless Tehran shows real commitment and changes its behaviour.”

Addressing lawmakers at the White House, Trump also said the United States would “end the war very quickly” with Iran, reiterating that Tehran would not be permitted to possess nuclear weapons.

Iran’s foreign ministry, however, said Tehran was currently focused on “ending the war on all fronts, especially Lebanon,” while insisting it continued negotiations “in good faith.” The ministry said Washington must demonstrate seriousness in any diplomatic process.

The ministry described the US naval measures as “a violation of the ceasefire and contrary to international law,” dismissing discussions of ultimatums or deadlines imposed on Iran as “ridiculous.”

It added that coastal states have the right to prevent “aggressor states” from crossing the Strait of Hormuz and called for mechanisms regulating passage through the strategic waterway to ensure maritime security and environmental protection. Tehran also demanded the release of frozen Iranian assets and an end to what it described as “maritime piracy against Iranian shipping.”

In a further escalation, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that any renewed attack on Iran would not remain confined within its borders. In a statement carried by Tasnim news agency, the Guards said the “American-Zionist enemy” had failed to learn from repeated strategic defeats, adding that Iran had “not yet used all of its capabilities” despite confronting the United States and Israel.

Iranian state television later reported that five large oil tankers had received authorisation from the Revolutionary Guards to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting continued tensions surrounding one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes.

Elsewhere in the region, Jordan’s military said it had shot down an unidentified drone that entered the country’s airspace over Jerash province on Wednesday morning, adding that there were no casualties and only minor material damage.

In the Gulf, the United Arab Emirates called on Iraq to prevent “any hostile acts” launched from its territory following a recent drone attack targeting the UAE’s Barakah nuclear power plant. In a statement, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged Baghdad to take immediate and unconditional action to prevent “all hostile acts originating from its territory” and address the threats responsibly in accordance with international law.

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared that Iran does not control the strait, asserting that the United States has “full control” over the passage. He urged international partners to increase pressure on Tehran, framing the dispute as a test of international resolve. US Central Command reinforced this position, reporting that two US-flagged commercial vessels transited the strait safely and denying Iranian claims of attacks or blockades. In a move underscoring Washington’s determination, Central Command announced the deployment of around 15,000 troops, more than 100 aircraft, and guided-missile destroyers as part of an operation to restore freedom of navigation in the strait, through which roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade passes.

Iranian military officials countered with equal force, insisting that security in Hormuz is “fully under the control” of its armed forces. The commander of Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiya central headquarters warned that any threat would be met with a “harsh response,” while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) cautioned shipping companies against ignoring directives, vowing to intercept vessels that fail to comply with its protocols.

The escalation comes amid conflicting accounts of maritime incidents in the strait. Iran’s military claimed its naval forces issued warnings to US destroyers approaching the strait and fired warning shots using missiles and drones after the vessels ignored alerts, holding Washington responsible for any consequences. The US military flatly denied that its ships had been targeted, highlighting the conflicting narratives that have become a hallmark of the crisis.

The fallout has reverberated across the Gulf. The United Arab Emirates initially warned citizens of a “potential missile threat” before later declaring conditions safe. Qatar and Egypt condemned an attack on a UAE tanker, describing it as a violation of international law and freedom of navigation, and warning of its impact on global energy security. Egypt’s foreign ministry emphasized that targeting commercial vessels represents a “serious threat to regional stability and global energy supplies,” while Qatar rejected the use of the strait as a pressure tool and called for it to be reopened unconditionally. Meanwhile, maritime security reports indicated that container ships had come under fire, and Iran’s IRGC claimed to have seized three vessels, underscoring the risks despite efforts to sustain a ceasefire.

Diplomatic efforts are underway to prevent further escalation. Pakistan’s foreign minister discussed developments with his Iranian counterpart, stressing the need for de-escalation. Russia signaled readiness to propose new initiatives for a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction, linking the Hormuz crisis to broader regional security concerns. As global concern mounts, the dispute over Hormuz has become more than a bilateral clash; it is a test of international diplomacy, energy security, and the fragile balance of power in the Gulf.

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In a social media post, Trump said Iran was pressing for the reopening of Hormuz while attempting to stabilize its internal leadership, though he did not specify how this message had been conveyed.

His remarks come amid reports of divisions within Washington over whether to continue relying primarily on economic pressure or to resume military strikes. Axios reported that Trump is weighing options between maintaining sanctions and naval pressure on Iran or launching new military attacks, with concerns that the United States could become mired in a prolonged strategic stalemate described as “neither war nor peace.”

US officials cited by the outlet warned that such a frozen conflict could destabilize global energy markets for months while preserving the risk of sudden escalation.

Iran, meanwhile, signaled that it does not consider the conflict resolved. An Iranian military spokesperson said Tehran had updated its target bank during both wartime and the ceasefire period, adding that Iran’s army and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintain coordinated control over the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC securing the western side, and the regular army overseeing the eastern sector.

Iran’s defense ministry announced that future shipping through Hormuz would be subject to new security protocols aimed at safeguarding Iranian interests, describing recent US and Israeli military actions as a severe blow to trust and international law.

On the ground, Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that the Japanese oil tanker Idemitsu Maru, carrying roughly 2 million barrels of crude, passed through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with Iran, potentially signaling the early implementation of Tehran’s new maritime oversight framework.

Diplomatically, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi welcomed Russian support for negotiations following talks with President Vladimir Putin, highlighting the depth of their strategic partnership. Moscow has repeatedly offered mediation and previously proposed storing Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles as a de-escalation measure, though Washington rejected the idea.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated that Washington’s core objective remains preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, arguing that Tehran often uses negotiations to buy time. He stressed that any future agreement must decisively block Iran’s path to nuclear weapons capability.

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The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement that all ships had been warned not to move in the Gulf and the Sea of Oman, adding that approaching the Strait of Hormuz would be treated as “cooperation with the enemy” and could result in vessels being targeted if they fail to comply.

An Iranian official also indicated that Tehran would prioritise vessels paying transit fees through the strait, signalling a tightening of control over one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, through which roughly one-third of global seaborne oil passes.

Politically, Iranian officials struck a dual tone of defiance and conditional openness. President Masoud Pezeshkian said the United States has no justification to deny Iran its nuclear rights, stressing that Tehran does not seek to expand the war and is acting in what it describes as legitimate self-defence.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said some progress had been made in talks with Washington but insisted on guarantees against future attacks, adding that Iran supports a step-by-step reciprocal approach.

US President Donald Trump said a US delegation would travel to Islamabad for talks on Iran, presenting what he described as a “fair deal” while warning that rejection could trigger widespread destruction of Iranian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges.

US officials said Vice President JD Vance would lead the delegation, while Pakistani authorities have stepped up security in Islamabad ahead of a possible new round of negotiations. However, uncertainty remains over whether the talks will proceed.

On the military front, Iran’s aerospace commander said the country is rapidly replenishing missile and drone launch systems at a faster pace than before the war, signalling sustained military readiness.

Israeli media reported that Israel and the United States are preparing for the possibility of a collapse in the ceasefire, with Iranian energy infrastructure cited as a potential target should hostilities resume, amid limited optimism among mediators.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said both Iran and the United States appear willing to continue negotiations, though significant differences remain, calling for an extension of the ceasefire set to expire this week.

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Trump noted that U.S. officials, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are engaged in ongoing talks with Iranian counterparts, with Vice President J.D. Vance potentially joining the discussions, even as military operations continue and signs of further escalation intensify.

On the ground, Israel said it had killed Asghar Bagheri, identified as the commander of a special operations unit within Iran’s Quds Force, in a strike on Tehran. The Israeli military said he had coordinated operations against Israeli and U.S. targets, though there was no independent confirmation from Iran.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said the military had struck the South Pars petrochemical complex in Assaluyeh and ordered continued attacks on what he described as Iran’s “national infrastructure”. Iranian media reported explosions at the site.

In a sensitive development, the International Atomic Energy Agency said it had detected signs of recent strikes near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant, but confirmed that the facility itself was not damaged. It added that one strike occurred approximately 75 metres from the plant’s perimeter.

Israeli media reported that two missiles were launched from Iran towards Tel Aviv, with debris falling across dozens of locations. Emergency services said one person was injured, while other reports cited additional casualties and damage at around 20 sites.

Further reports indicated that air defence systems intercepted drones entering Israeli airspace from the east, although their origin remained unclear.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said they had downed advanced drones, including an MQ-9, and destroyed a U.S. cruise missile—claims that could not be independently verified. An Iranian military spokesperson said Tehran aims to push its “enemy” to a “point of regret” in order to reinforce deterrence.

The escalation has widened across the Gulf. The UAE said it intercepted 12 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles and 19 drones, while Kuwait reported dealing with 14 ballistic missiles and 46 drones within 24 hours, with injuries caused by falling debris. In Jordan, a missile and a drone strike resulted in two injuries and material damage.

Highlighting ongoing risks to maritime trade, Turkey said a Turkish vessel had safely crossed the Strait of Hormuz, even as the number of Turkish ships in the area declined amid mounting concerns over threats to energy supplies and shipping routes.

Inside Iran, the IRGC said their intelligence chief was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes, while local officials reported that nine people, including four children, were killed in an attack on a residential area near Tehran.

Meanwhile, Reuters cited a source as saying that Iran and the United States had received a two-stage proposal to end the conflict, beginning with an immediate ceasefire followed by a comprehensive agreement that could pave the way for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. There was no immediate official comment from either side.

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In a post on Truth Social, Trump said Tuesday would be “Power Plant Day” and “Bridge Day” for Iran, demanding the reopening of the strait. The remarks mark the latest escalation more than five weeks into the conflict. He also reiterated praise for the reported rescue of a U.S. crew member from a downed warplane in Iran, an incident described differently by Washington and Tehran.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Sunday it had targeted petrochemical facilities in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain, warning of further attacks on U.S. economic interests across the region if strikes on what it describes as civilian sites inside Iran persist. According to Reuters, Bahrain’s Gulf Petrochemical Industries Company reported a fire in some operating units following an Iranian drone strike, which was later contained without injuries. Other reports suggested broader damage to Gulf facilities, though these could not be independently verified.

The developments highlight growing risks to critical infrastructure across the Gulf. Qatar had earlier warned against targeting energy and water facilities, as well as the broader implications for shipping security and global energy flows. Separate reports indicated that both the UAE and Bahrain issued alerts on Sunday over incoming missile and drone threats.

In Israel, the health ministry said the number of people evacuated to hospitals since the war began on Feb. 28 had risen to 6,833, including 108 in the past 24 hours, while local media reported Iranian missile strikes in the south.

In Iran, state news agency IRNA said U.S.-Israeli strikes had hit Ahvaz airport in the southwest. A government spokeswoman added that the conflict had damaged tens of thousands of housing units, as well as hundreds of health centres, schools and universities. Reuters said it could not independently verify the full extent of the reported damage or several competing claims from both sides.

On the diplomatic front, Egypt intensified its engagement. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty held a series of calls with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, alongside counterparts in Gulf states, Turkey, Pakistan and Iran, as well as the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

According to Reuters, Egypt is pushing for de-escalation amid mounting concern over the potential economic and geopolitical fallout, including risks to energy security and global shipping routes.

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Trump told reporters at the White House that a U.S. withdrawal could occur “within two weeks, maybe within two weeks, maybe three,” adding that Tehran would not be required to reach an agreement as a precondition for de-escalation. The White House later said Trump would deliver a national address with a “major update on Iran.”

The remarks came as the United States continued to reinforce its military presence in the region. U.S. media, citing officials, reported that the aircraft carrier USS George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) was en route to the Middle East to join the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) and the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), potentially bringing the number of U.S. carriers deployed in the region to three. Thousands of troops from the 82nd Airborne Division have also begun arriving, according to U.S. officials.

On the battlefield, Iran and Israel continued to exchange missile fire as U.S.-Israeli strikes targeted Tehran and other Iranian cities. Iran responded with missile barrages on Israel that wounded 14 people, including an 11-year-old girl in serious condition, according to Israeli emergency services. Israel’s health ministry said the number of people evacuated to hospitals since the war began on Feb. 28 had risen to 6,286, while the Institute for National Security Studies estimated the death toll at 29.

The Israeli military said it had carried out more than 800 attack sorties against Iran since the start of the war, deploying over 16,000 munitions. It added that its air force had conducted more than 2,000 aerial refuelling operations and that a target bank developed after the previous confrontation with Iran included more than 5,000 new targets.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had launched coordinated attacks using more than 100 missiles and drones against U.S. and Israeli targets as part of what it described as the 89th wave of “Operation True Promise 4.” It said the strikes targeted sites in Israel as well as U.S. bases and facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, including radar systems, oil tankers, and military infrastructure. These claims could not be independently verified.

Iran’s military also said it had intercepted communications and monitored social media indicating fires and damage at facilities linked to Rafael Advanced Defense Systems following drone strikes on military infrastructure and weapons sites, although this account could not be independently confirmed.

The war’s impact has extended across Gulf states. The UAE defence ministry said its air defences intercepted five ballistic missiles and 35 drones from Iran on Wednesday, adding that since the start of hostilities it had dealt with 438 ballistic missiles, 19 cruise missiles, and 2,012 drones. State news agency WAM reported that an Indian national was wounded in Umm Al Quwain by falling interceptor debris, while drone wreckage fell on a farm in Fujairah, killing one person, according to reports.

In Bahrain, authorities said four missiles and 19 drones had been intercepted and destroyed over the past 24 hours, bringing the total intercepted since the attacks began to 186 missiles and 419 drones. Kuwait’s interior ministry said bomb disposal teams had handled 13 incidents involving falling shrapnel from defensive interceptions, while Jordan’s military said it had intercepted two drones and one missile launched from Iran in the past 24 hours, with no injuries reported.

In Qatar, the defence ministry said the country had been targeted by three Iranian cruise missiles, adding that two were intercepted while the third struck an oil tanker chartered by QatarEnergy in Qatari economic waters. No casualties were reported after the crew was evacuated. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations also reported that a tanker off Qatar had been struck by two projectiles, one of which caused a fire that was later extinguished.

A source familiar with the matter told the Financial Times that an Amazon Web Services facility in Bahrain had been damaged in an Iranian attack. The company declined to comment on specific incidents but said its regional infrastructure had come under repeated attacks during the conflict.

Inside Iran, the semi-official Fars News Agency reported that steel industrial complexes in central and southwestern Iran sustained heavy damage in U.S.-Israeli strikes, including facilities linked to Mobarakeh Steel Company in Isfahan and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari. The Associated Press also reported that an airstrike had hit the former U.S. embassy compound in Tehran, where witnesses described shattered windows inside the site.

At the same time, prospects for de-escalation remained uncertain. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran had not yet decided whether to enter talks with the United States, describing the level of trust as “zero,” although he confirmed that messages were still being exchanged with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff through Iran’s foreign ministry. He stressed that this did not amount to formal negotiations.

In separate remarks to the Daily Telegraph, Trump said he was seriously considering withdrawing the United States from NATO, citing what he described as allies’ failure to support U.S. military action against Iran. He called the alliance a “paper tiger,” comments likely to deepen concerns over the broader geopolitical fallout from the war.

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In a major development, Israel claimed that it had killed Iran’s top security chief Ali Larijani, marking a significant escalation in Israel’s targeting of high-profile figures linked to Iran’s political and security establishment. Iranian authorities have not issued a formal confirmation of the circumstances, but state media reported mourning messages linked to ongoing military losses.

On the ground, Israel’s Home Front Command said missiles had been launched from Iran toward central Israel, triggering air raid sirens across the greater Tel Aviv area and other locations. The Israeli military said its air defence systems were intercepting incoming threats, while explosions were reported in Jerusalem following alerts in northern regions.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Iran announced it had launched strikes across the region against what it described as the “U.S.-Israeli enemy,” targeting bases allegedly used in recent American operations. A senior commander said Iranian units stationed on Gulf islands were on high alert and ready to “crush the enemy” if the conflict escalates further.

Tensions have also spread into the Gulf. The Ministry of Defense UAE said its air defence systems were intercepting missile and drone attacks originating from Iran. Explosions were reported near the port of Sharjah, though no confirmed damage to commercial shipping or infrastructure was recorded. In Qatar, blasts were heard over Doha, prompting authorities to raise the security alert level and urge residents to remain indoors.

Politically, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the military campaign aims to “destabilise the regime” in Iran and allow its people to shape their future, warning that such an outcome “will not happen quickly or easily.”

In contrast, an Iranian official said Mojtaba Khamenei had rejected ceasefire proposals relayed through mediators, stressing that Tehran’s stance on retaliation against the United States and Israel remains “firm and very serious.”

Diplomatic efforts appear increasingly strained. The United States Department of State has reportedly instructed diplomats to press allied governments to act swiftly to curb Iran’s capabilities, warning of heightened risks of further attacks.

Separately, Israel said it had killed Gholam Reza Soleimani in an airstrike in Tehran, part of a broader campaign targeting senior Iranian military figures. Iranian media also reported the seizure of hundreds of Starlink devices in a nationwide security operation.

In the United States, the head of the National Counterterrorism Center announced his resignation, citing opposition to the war and arguing that Iran had not posed an “imminent threat,” highlighting potential internal divisions over the escalation.

The widening scope of attacks underscores the growing risk of a broader regional conflict, as military escalation intensifies and prospects for de-escalation remain increasingly uncertain.

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The first misunderstanding concerns the nature of the Iranian regime itself. Unlike many authoritarian governments in the region, the Islamic Republic is not merely a centralised dictatorship dependent on a single ruler or narrow elite. Over four decades since the 1979 revolution, the regime has evolved into a hybrid political system combining ideological institutions, elected bodies, and a powerful security establishment dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This structure creates redundancy and resilience. Even in moments of leadership crisis or external pressure, authority is distributed across multiple power centres capable of maintaining regime continuity.

Recent developments in 2026 illustrate this resilience. Despite significant military pressure and regional confrontation, Iran has maintained operational cohesion through what analysts call a decentralised or “mosaic defence” structure, allowing regional commanders and security units to continue functioning even if central leadership is disrupted.   This model was designed precisely to ensure regime survival in the event of war, cyber disruption, or leadership decapitation.

The second major factor often overlooked is geography. Iran is not just a country; it is a natural fortress. Two massive mountain systems—the Zagros Mountains in the west and the Alborz Mountains in the north—form defensive barriers that historically limited the success of invading armies.   These mountain ranges, combined with vast deserts such as Dasht-e Kavir and Dasht-e Lut, create a landscape that severely complicates military logistics, supply lines, and troop movements.

Any ground force attempting to penetrate Iran from Iraq, Turkey, or the Persian Gulf would quickly encounter narrow mountain passes and high-altitude terrain exceeding 3,000 meters.   These geographic “chokepoints” give defenders a structural advantage and force invading armies into predictable routes that are easy to monitor and defend. Military historians often note that geography has been one of Iran’s greatest strategic assets for centuries.

The Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s offers a clear example. Saddam Hussein’s invasion initially aimed for a rapid victory, but Iraqi forces quickly became bogged down in difficult terrain along the Zagros Mountains, leading to a costly stalemate that lasted eight years.   The lesson remains relevant today: even a well-equipped army can struggle to achieve decisive gains in such terrain.

Beyond geography and institutional resilience, Iran’s internal social structure further complicates predictions of regime collapse. The country is home to a diverse population—including Persians, Azeris, Kurds, Balochs, Arabs, and others, spread across a fragmented landscape of mountains and valleys.   While ethnic tensions exist, they do not automatically translate into coordinated rebellion. In many cases, communities remain cautious about destabilisation that could lead to wider conflict or foreign intervention.

This does not mean Iran is immune to internal pressures. Economic sanctions, political dissent, and generational shifts continue to challenge the regime. However, the assumption that external pressure or military intervention could quickly topple the government ignores both structural and geographic realities.

Iran’s political system has been shaped by revolution, war, sanctions, and isolation. Over time, these experiences have produced a state whose primary strategic objective is survival. Combined with one of the most defensible landscapes in the world, this makes Iran fundamentally different from regimes that have collapsed under external intervention.

In the end, the question is not whether Iran faces challenges, it clearly does. The real question is whether those challenges can realistically produce a rapid regime collapse. History, geography, and political structure all suggest the same answer: Iran is far harder to topple than many assume.

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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it launched a new round of missile attacks on Israel as part of the 55th wave of “Operation True Promise 4.” The group also claimed it targeted U.S. military facilities at Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates and Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain, as well as the U.S. naval base in Naval Support Activity Bahrain.

Israeli media reported that some of the missiles fired by Iran carried cluster munitions, with one causing material damage at eight sites in central Israel. Israel’s Health Ministry said 142 people were admitted to hospitals over the past 24 hours following the attacks.

Fragments from an Iranian missile also struck a house in the town of Shoham near Ben Gurion Airport east of Tel Aviv, causing property damage but no casualties, according to videos circulating on social media. Israeli Channels 12 and 13 reported that cluster-type warheads landed at multiple locations across the greater Tel Aviv area.

In Iran, Agence France-Presse reported hearing powerful explosions in Tehran on Monday, hours after Israel said it had carried out large-scale overnight air strikes. Air defence systems were activated in central Tehran, although the exact targets were not immediately clear.

The Israeli military said it had struck a facility in Tehran that it alleged was being used to develop offensive capabilities targeting satellites.

Meanwhile, United States Central Command said American forces continue to conduct “precision strikes” inside Iran, adding that operations were making progress. The command said U.S. pilots had conducted more than 6,000 combat missions and sorties over Iranian airspace and destroyed a significant number of Iranian warships during the campaign. It also reported that U.S. forces struck 19 military targets on Kharg Island last Friday.

Gulf security concerns intensify

Fears of a widening conflict in the Gulf have grown after several countries reported missile and drone attacks in recent days.

Qatar’s Ministry of Defence said its armed forces intercepted a missile targeting the country, while the Interior Ministry raised the national security threat level to “high,” urging residents to remain indoors temporarily.

Bahrain said it had intercepted and destroyed 129 missiles and 215 drones targeting its territory since what it described as Iranian attacks began on 28 February.

In Saudi Arabia, the Defence Ministry said three drones were intercepted and destroyed over the Riyadh and Eastern regions.

Authorities in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates reported that a Palestinian national was killed after a missile struck a civilian vehicle in the Al Bahia area. In Dubai, a fire caused by a drone attack near Dubai International Airport was extinguished without casualties. Flights were briefly suspended before airport operations resumed, while police closed several nearby roads.

Energy market concerns

As the conflict intensifies, pressure is mounting on global energy markets amid the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes.

Donald Trump, President of the United States, called on countries that benefit from the waterway to “fight and defend it,” saying military operations inside Iran were progressing “very well.”

The news outlet Axios reported that Trump hopes to announce a coalition of countries later this week aimed at reopening the strait to commercial shipping.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that any attack on Kharg Island—one of the country’s key oil export terminals—could create a “new and harsh equation” for global energy prices and distribution.

Despite the risks, maritime tracking service MarineTraffic said the first non-Iranian oil tanker had crossed the Strait of Hormuz while broadcasting its tracking signal since the war began on 28 February. The medium-sized tanker Karachi, carrying Das crude from Abu Dhabi, crossed the strait with its Automatic Identification System active, suggesting that some shipments may have been granted negotiated safe passage.

Diplomatic efforts and economic costs

Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said more than 61,000 civilian facilities had been damaged by attacks in recent weeks, including over 18,000 residential apartments and commercial shops.

Diplomatically, Qatar and Saudi Arabia renewed their condemnation of Iranian attacks during a phone call between Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and his Saudi counterpart.

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari said Doha is seeking to help de-escalate tensions in the region, noting that the recent visit of Badr Abdelatty, Egypt’s foreign minister, to Qatar included discussions on diplomatic efforts to contain the crisis.

In Washington, Kevin Hassett, Director of the United States National Economic Council, said the war against Iran had already cost the United States at least $12bn as of Sunday, highlighting the growing economic burden of a conflict that risks escalating into a broader regional confrontation.

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